Answering Questions Since 2006.
BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16239693South Korean military is on emergency alert. Waiting to see if China raises alert status as well.KCNA articles, since their servers are hammered:= Kim Jong Il Passes Away (Urgent) =Pyongyang, December 19 (KCNA) -- Kim Jong Il, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, passed away from a great mental and physical strain at 08:30 December 17, 2011, on train during a field guidance tour.The WPK Central Committee and Central Military Commission, DPRK National Defence Commission, Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly and Cabinet released a notice on Saturday informing the WPK members, servicepersons and all other people of his passing away.= Medical Analysis of Kim Jong Il's Demise =Pyongyang, December 19 (KCNA) -- Leader Kim Jong Il had received medical treatment for his cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases for a long period.He suffered an advanced acute myocardial infarction, complicated with a serious heart shock, on train on December 17, Juche 100 (2011) for a great mental and physical strain caused by his uninterrupted field guidance tour for the building of a thriving nation.Every possible first-aid measure was taken immediately but he passed away at 08:30 on December 17.An autopsy on December 18 fully confirmed the diagnosis of his diseases.
Coming right before the big celebration year of 2012, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out. I think Kim Jong-eun is in a good position to act as figurehead for the government if enough elements in the background agree to the status quo; if there is any dissent, this could get ugly quickly. When Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union fell, it took weeks to play out. This may be a blip on the radar or the beginning of something big.
A part of me is worried about what's gonna happen next. The other part is celebrating because the first reaction after someone like him dies is always of happiness.
Full update over at the blog - http://www.asiapundits.com/regions/korea/breaking-news-kim-jung-il-dead-after-heart-attack/
It was inevitable, though I don't think anyone was expecting it so quickly. TK: what do you think this will mean for North Korea (foreign policy, economy, politics in general, etc)? Consider, after all, that KJI had been practically running the country years before KIS passed away. I wonder if this was the case again.
I just got back home for christmas (from college, still in California) and I told my mom, OMG KIM JON IL DIED...WHAT WILL ASK A KOREAN SAY!?!?!?!?...I'm also wondering what the guy (I forget his name, but the defector that you translate his articles) will say about this. Probably the average American won't know/care...gosh people are so ignorant...but this is a HUGEEEE deal.The word verification for me is "herse"...I know it is a letter off, but still...kinda appropriate
@SaraOf course the average American will know. It's all over the news. An enemy of America is dead - sensationalist media will make sure that every American knows about KJI's death and the impact it will have (however incorrect their prediction may be)on North Korea and its position on the world stage.
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WOW. This has not been a good year for dictators. I'm sure that Castro and Ahmedinejad are both looking at the 2011 calendar like it's a doomsday clock right about now...I think what I wonder the most is what will South Korea's response to this be?
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All I can say is:Adios, motherf@&er!
Václav Havel also died this weekend. What a contrast in character and courage between the two. I mourn the passing of Havel, and say good riddance to KJI.
This is my take on what is going to happen next:Stage 1. Kim Jong Eun takes power. The transition is smooth. Stage 2. Kim Jon Eun is incapable to handle the state. The economy declines to the point of a complete collapse.Stage 3. North Korea is doing all kinds of crazy things trying to get foreign aid.Stage 4. The US puts pressure on China not to help North Korea. China has to comply.Stage 5. The economy worsens. Kim Jon Eun is doing crazy things to shift the blame for his own mistakes to some members of his staff. This, in turn, alienates other officials in power who display Silverback gorilla syndrome. The distance between KJE and his surrounding royal suite grows.Stage 6. On one hand there is a looming economic disaster. On the other hand, young KJE is incapable of handing the crisis trying to fight off a bunch of silverback gorillas. After a short power struggle, KJE loses his power, people's protests grow.Stage 7. The "new" government of North Korea, comprised of old adjussis is unable to choose a strong charismatic leader. The person of their choice is unable to get the country under control. Temporary disorder in the country.Stage 8. Another government turnover. The new government negotiates unification process with South Korea. Stage 9. Some people in South Korea protest against unification, but the process is inevitable. A decision is made swiftly.Stage 10. A long and painful process of re-unification and healing the wounds. My prediction: in less than 15 years both Koreas will be united. Add 10 more years for Stage 10.
Relieved that he's dead, but worried about the friends I made on my visit there. They have to feel quite a bit of trauma right now.
As far as vb's predictions, NK's economy is already pretty bad, and since when does China have to comply with the US's demands?With regards to reunification, it'll take longer than 25 years, if it's even possible at all.
What some Russian sources are saying about the future of NK: China is putting a lot of effort in order for North Korea to follow Chinese model - capitalist economy, communist ideology. But I think KJE is too young to turn the country around. Hence my prediction.
About Kim Jeong eun, I might be wrong, but when I see him in the news, I get the impression he's following some instructions, some rules set by somebody, or a group of people that we shall never know about. A secret real leader that will make sure for the Kim Jeong Il's regime to stay even after his death, adding some modifications to make it fit better with this secret society's plans.And if that's really the case, I'm kinda getting pessimist....
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