Ask a Korean! News: Can North Korea Democratize Like Egypt?

As always, Mr. Joo Seong-Ha does not disappoint. His latest installment on comparing the democratization trend in the Middle East with North Korea is translated below. (Please note that Mr. Joo's regular job is an international desk reporter at a major Korean daily.)

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Observing the successful citizen revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, many may have held a strand of hope that such citizen revolution could occur in North Korea as well. A considerable number of news articles in fact tried to analyze that link. But I am the opposite: seeing the Middle Eastern citizen revolution made me believe even stronger about the difficulty of toppling a true dictatorial regime. Without having to discuss any kingdoms, Libya is an excellent example. Libya is situated between Tunisia and Egypt, but not even a weak breeze of democracy can be felt. Actually, there is no way to tell from the outside whether there is even a breeze or not. Why?

Considering many aspects such as deification, oppression, isolation and information control, Libya as a dictatorial state is at a different level from Tunisia and Egypt. Muammar al-Gaddafi has been ruling for 42 years, much longer than Tunisia's Ben Ali (23 years) or Egypt's Hosni Mubarak (30 years). In Libya, even foreigners have to call Gaddafi the "Leader." Libya is a step beyond with respect to political oppression also. In Tunisia and Egypt, one can at least find out where the arrested person went; in Libya, once you disappear, that's it.

But the most prominent difference between Libya and Tunisia/Egypt is its isolation. Libya is different from Tunisia, which is considerably Westernized, and Egypt that welcomes millions of tourists every year. Though Libya began to improve its relationship with the West in 2003 by abandoning weapons of mass destruction, it had been under America's economic sanction for more than 20 years.

This is similar to North Korea and Cuba. North Korea and Libya also share other similarities, such as long-term dictatorship, deification, attempt at succession, oppression of political dissidents and control of the press. They also share similar themes, such as pursuit of socialism, one party system, anti-Americanism, support of terrorism and development of weapons of mass destruction. What is more, both regime sent their heir apparent to Switzerland to study.

But it is difficult to compare the level of authoritarian-ness between North Korea and Libya, which are both ruled by two dictators who were both born in 1942. North Korea has been a dictatorship for 66 years, since the times of Kim Il-Sung. It chugs along with three-generation succession. Libya does not have political prisons that hold hundreds of thousands, nor does it have guilt-by-association system like North Korea does. Libya's political prisoners are estimated at several hundreds, and several thousands at most.

Libya's isolation is no isolation at all compared to North Korea's. Nearly all Libyans have Internet access, and social network services like Facebook are fairly widespread. Libya also has more than a million foreign workers. It also has more than ten times per capita GDP. It is vastly different from North Korea, in which Internet and social networking are nonexistent, no foreigner can be seen outside of Pyongyang and beggars are all over the country.

It appears that the more apt comparison to Libya is Romania, whose authoritarianism fell with Nicolae Ceaucescu's execution in 1989. Regardless of the strength of Romania's dictatorship, it was deeply tied with its sponsor, the Soviet Union. The change in the Soviet Union meant change in Romania. Also, Eastern European countries had a close relationship at the communist party level, and ran their politics in a similar manner. Thus, they could not avoid the democratization dominoes.

But in Romania, the secret police (equivalent to North Korea's Security Bureau) fired indiscriminately to the protesting public in Bucharest. In just a few days there were 1142 dead and 3138 injured. Secret police's gunfires only ceased after the news of Ceaucescu's execution. Luckily, Romanian military did not shoot the protesters, as the head of the military withdrew the soldiers against the orders to suppress the protests. Some lower-ranking soldiers interpreted this to mean that it was ok for them to join the protesters, who then waged a battle against the secret police. If that didn't happen, how many citizens would have died? Especially if the military shot at the civilians? Even so, Romania had to pay a dear price of blood. This is how difficult it is to topple a true dictatorship.

In North Korea, which has much more sophisticated and ruthless dictatorship system and secret police than Libya or Romania, citizen revolution is that much more difficult. In fact, one can say there is no citizen to join the revolution. Nonetheless, if the flames of citizen revolution spreads to Libya, one may be able to have a feint hope on North Korea. One can recognize that even a strong dictatorship cannot avoid the wind of change if such wind reaches Libya.

But if Libya stands tall amidst the gusts from Tunisia and Egypt....

리비아를 보면 북한의 민중봉기 가능성이 보인다 [Nambuk Story]

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