Having discussed the three major candidates, this part of the series will discuss what is ahead for each candidate (and a former candidate) in the presidential race, which is now less than three weeks away.
Ahn Cheol-soo
Previously, Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo had agreed to unify their candidacy to create a single progressive candidate. Since then, the two candidates held and broke off several rounds of negotiations regarding the methodology of the unification. Finally, on November 23, 2012, Ahn abruptly withdrew his candidacy, ceding the progressive candidacy to Democratic United Party's Moon Jae-in.
As far as political aesthetics go, Ahn's move was an inspired one. Ahn's greatest asset as a politician was his image as the new breed of politician, heroically appearing to breathe a fresh air into the old politics. Ahn had no choice but to unite his candidacy -- otherwise, Moon and Ahn would split the progressive votes, guaranteeing Park Geun-hye's victory. But as Ahn grappled with Moon to negotiate the unification of the slate, the value of his prime asset -- i.e. the image -- began to erode. Fighting for every inch of advantage in the proposed mini-primary was the opposite of the "new politics". So was Ahn's attempt to court the DUP Assembly Members and supporters away from Moon. Ahn's numbers began to sink, and he was projecting to lose against Moon in the head-to-head battle. Even if Ahn managed to prevail over Moon, it would be a Pyrrhic victory -- by the time he would face Park Geun-hye, Ahn would have squandered away his prime political asset.
Faced with two unsavory choices, Ahn chose to sublimate. Ahn would not squander away his chief political asset to achieve an intermediate victory that may well turn out to doom his presidential run in the end, nor would he quietly lose to Moon and have a number attached to the margin of his loss. Instead, he would restore the damage that his asset has taken in the last two months -- he would withdraw, cleanly and without making a fuss, and declare his support for Moon Jae-in.
Although Ahn withdrew, his influence remains quite relevant. We have already witnessed his ability to serve as a king-maker -- Ahn did make Park Won-soon, a candidate with around 5% support, into a 53.4%-garnering juggernaut. Ahn did express his support for Moon Jae-in, but how Ahn will express that support going forward may just decide the election.
(More after the jump.)
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